How Big Things Get Done: The Surprising Factors That Determine the Success or Failure of Megaprojects

In How Big Things Get Done, Bent Flyvbjerg, the world’s leading expert on megaprojects, reveals the surprising factors that determine whether large-scale projects succeed or fail. Drawing on decades of research and analysis of thousands of projects worldwide, Flyvbjerg provides a groundbreaking framework for understanding and managing megaprojects—those massive undertakings that cost $1 billion or more and affect millions of people.

The Megaproject Problem

Flyvbjerg begins by addressing what he calls the “megaproject problem”—the consistent pattern of cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and delays that plague large-scale projects across industries and countries. His research shows that:

90% of megaprojects run over budget
70% come in behind schedule
50% fail to deliver promised benefits

These statistics are consistent across sectors including infrastructure, IT, defense, and energy, suggesting that the problem is not industry-specific but systemic.

The Irony of Megaprojects

Despite their poor track record, megaprojects continue to be approved and funded at an accelerating rate, representing trillions of dollars in global investment annually. This creates what Flyvbjerg calls the “irony of megaprojects”—the continued pursuit of projects that are statistically likely to fail.

The Reference Class Forecasting Approach

One of Flyvbjerg’s key contributions is the concept of “reference class forecasting”—using data from similar past projects to make more accurate predictions about future projects. This approach contrasts with the common practice of “inside view” forecasting, which focuses on the specific details of a project while ignoring historical patterns.

The Planning Fallacy

Flyvbjerg explains how the planning fallacy—the tendency to underestimate time, costs, and risks for future projects—contributes to megaproject failure. This cognitive bias leads project proponents to create overly optimistic projections that rarely materialize.

Strategic Misrepresentation

The book also addresses “strategic misrepresentation”—the deliberate manipulation of project forecasts to secure approval. This can involve understating costs, overstating benefits, or downplaying risks to make projects appear more attractive to decision-makers.

The Five Laws of Megaprojects

Flyvbjerg introduces his “Five Laws of Megaprojects” that explain why these projects consistently underperform:

Law 1: Overbudget, Overrun, Underdeliver

Megaprojects are typically delivered over budget, behind schedule, and with fewer benefits than promised.

Law 2: Each Project Is Unique… Until Proven Otherwise

While each project has unique aspects, they share enough common characteristics with past projects to make historical data valuable for forecasting.

Law 3: The Survival of the Unfittest

Projects that should never have been approved survive the selection process due to optimistic bias and strategic misrepresentation.

Law 4: The Irresistible Rise of the Undead Project

Projects that are failing often continue to receive funding and support despite evidence of problems.

Law 5: The White Elephant at the Feast

Megaprojects often become “white elephants”—expensive failures that continue to consume resources long after their problems are evident.

The Formula for Megaproject Success

Based on his research, Flyvbjerg develops a formula for megaproject success that focuses on four key elements:

1. Accuracy

The foundation of successful megaproject management is accurate forecasting and realistic planning. This involves:

Using reference class forecasting
Being honest about risks and uncertainties
Avoiding the planning fallacy
Embracing probabilistic thinking

2. Transparency

Successful projects require transparency in all aspects of planning and execution:

Open sharing of data and forecasts
Honest communication about problems
Regular independent reviews
Accountability for decisions

3. Governance

Strong governance structures are essential for megaproject success:

Clear roles and responsibilities
Independent oversight
Regular review processes
Mechanisms for stopping failing projects

4. Capability

Organizations must develop the capability to manage megaprojects effectively:

Skilled project managers and teams
Robust project management processes
Adequate resources and support
Continuous learning and improvement

The Four Sublimes

Flyvbjerg identifies four psychological and political factors that make megaprojects irresistible despite their poor track record:

The Technology Sublime

The appeal of cutting-edge technology and innovation that megaprojects often promise.

The Economic Sublime

The economic benefits and job creation that projects are expected to deliver.

The social transformation and improved quality of life that projects claim to provide.

The Political Sublime

The political benefits and legacy that projects offer to their champions.

These “sublimes” create powerful emotional and political forces that can override rational analysis and lead to poor decision-making.

Risk Management and Decision-Making

The book provides practical guidance on how to improve risk management and decision-making for megaprojects:

Better Forecasting Methods

Use of reference class forecasting
Monte Carlo simulations
Scenario planning
Sensitivity analysis

Improved Decision Processes

Independent cost and benefit reviews
Stage-gate processes
Kill switches for failing projects
Regular reassessment of assumptions

Enhanced Accountability

Clear assignment of responsibility
Consequences for poor forecasting
Incentives for accuracy
Learning from mistakes

Industry-Specific Insights

Flyvbjerg provides insights into megaproject challenges across different sectors:

Infrastructure

Transportation projects (highways, bridges, airports)
Urban development projects
Water and energy infrastructure

Information Technology

Large-scale system implementations
Digital transformation initiatives
Enterprise software deployments

Defense and Aerospace

Military equipment programs
Space exploration projects
Weapons system development

Energy and Environment

Power plant construction
Renewable energy projects
Environmental remediation efforts

The Role of Leadership

The book emphasizes the critical role of leadership in megaproject success:

Visionary Leadership

Leaders must be able to articulate a clear vision while remaining grounded in reality.

Honest Leadership

Leaders must be willing to acknowledge problems and make difficult decisions.

Competent Leadership

Leaders must possess or acquire the skills necessary to manage complex projects.

Ethical Leadership

Leaders must prioritize the public interest over personal or political gain.

Organizational Factors

Flyvbjerg explores how organizational factors influence megaproject outcomes:

Organizational Culture

Risk tolerance
Learning orientation
Accountability systems
Communication patterns

Organizational Structure

Project governance frameworks
Reporting relationships
Decision-making processes
Resource allocation mechanisms

Organizational Learning

Knowledge management systems
Lessons learned processes
Continuous improvement practices
Benchmarking against industry standards

The Future of Megaprojects

The book concludes with thoughts on the future of megaprojects in a rapidly changing world:

Digital Transformation

How new technologies like AI, machine learning, and digital twins might improve project outcomes.

Sustainability and Climate Change

The increasing importance of environmental considerations in megaproject planning and execution.

Public Scrutiny and Accountability

Growing demands for transparency and accountability in public spending on megaprojects.

New Models of Project Delivery

Innovative approaches to project financing, procurement, and management.

Practical Applications

The book provides practical tools and frameworks that organizations can use to improve their megaproject success rates:

Assessment Tools

Project viability checklists
Risk assessment frameworks
Benefit realization methods
Performance measurement systems

Management Frameworks

Portfolio management approaches
Project governance models
Stakeholder engagement strategies
Communication plans

Decision Support Systems

Forecasting models
Scenario planning tools
Investment appraisal methods
Exit strategy frameworks

The book connects to several broader intellectual traditions:

Behavioral Economics

Flyvbjerg draws on behavioral economics to explain cognitive biases that affect project decision-making.

Systems Theory

The emphasis on understanding projects as complex systems connects to broader systems thinking approaches.

Public Policy

The focus on public sector projects relates to public policy and governance literature.

Project Management

The book builds on and challenges traditional project management approaches.

Critiques and Limitations

The book acknowledges potential limitations of its approach:

Data Quality Issues

The reliability of project data can vary significantly, affecting the accuracy of analyses.

Contextual Factors

Some projects may be genuinely unique, making historical comparisons less useful.

Implementation Challenges

Even with better methods, implementation in complex organizational environments can be difficult.

Political Realities

Political considerations may override technical recommendations in some cases.

Conclusion

How Big Things Get Done provides a comprehensive and evidence-based approach to understanding and managing megaprojects. Flyvbjerg’s decades of research offer valuable insights into why these massive undertakings so often fail and what can be done to improve their success rates.

The book’s central message is that megaproject success is not accidental but the result of deliberate choices about accuracy, transparency, governance, and capability. By applying the principles and methods outlined in the book, organizations can significantly improve their chances of delivering megaprojects that meet their objectives within budget and schedule.

Flyvbjerg’s work is particularly valuable for:

Public officials responsible for approving and funding megaprojects
Project managers and executives leading large-scale initiatives
Investors and stakeholders evaluating project proposals
Researchers and academics studying project management and public policy
Citizens and advocacy groups concerned about public spending

Through rigorous analysis, practical frameworks, and real-world examples, How Big Things Get Done offers a roadmap for transforming how we plan, approve, and execute the massive projects that shape our world. It’s an essential resource for anyone involved in or affected by megaprojects, challenging conventional wisdom and providing evidence-based guidance for better outcomes.

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